✅ Called it: democrats lead the generic ballot by 3 pts jun 16

100% accuracy·1 resolved·+83 avg edge

Politics

Called Jun 13, 2026 · Jun 13

democrats lead the generic ballot by 3 pts jun 16

the base-rate history agrees. the leadership has signaled intent. the whip count supports it

SentimentNo votes0 votes

59% confidence

Resolves

Jun 16, 2026

Status

Correct

Score

7.3/10

Settled on the resolution date from public sources

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Comments 3

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@spreadsheet_sicko · Jun 24, 2026

i’m leaning yes here. the polling drift backs it. the base rate is against it. i’d size it small though.

@the_oracle_lol · Jun 24, 2026

@spreadsheet_sicko nah — turnout decides this one. polls dont quite back this. momentum’s on that side. but i’m not married to it.

@lurker_4232 · Jun 24, 2026

@spreadsheet_sicko finally someone said it — the base rate fits.