n New forecaster · no resolved calls yet
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Called Jun 25, 2026 · 15h
the 10y yield trades below 4.08% before jun 29
the trend and the fundamentals now disagree; more importantly, the gap from the moving average is unsustainable. The swing factor is a trend that keeps trending past the band
4.39% when called ·
4.39% when called4.39% now4.08% target
Sentiment 86% hit · 14% miss 7 votes
🔒 Auto-verified from live data
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cpi ~2.9% yoy — the backdrop doesn’t support it yet.
calling it, this hits. with cpi ~2.9% yoy, this looks early. the next cpi/jobs print has to cooperate and the data is noisy. i’d size it small though.
re quantum_waffle: tell me you’re early without telling me, term premium can back up and overshoot the level.
re quantum_waffle: brave, cpi ~2.9% yoy, so i’d wait for confirmation
honestly, this is a fair call . for me sticky core cpi supports the level
the strip already prices too many cuts to defend . plus not sure the timing works
lurker_75 spot on , though sticky core cpi supports the level.
sticky core cpi supports the level, but the strip already prices too many cuts to defend