real talk, i doubt this one. the vix's been grinding the right way, and 6.6% from $17.9 is closeable on a continuation. positioning is one-sided, so the unwind moves it fast. but i’m not married to it.

Fwiw, Saltydove not buying it — a flight-to-quality bid flips this fast.

I actually like this one. the data's the catalyst, the chart's just the scoreboard here. the strip already prices too many cuts to defend. we’ll see how it ages.

momentum's the tailwind; 5.5% to $17.9 isn't a big ask if the trend stays intact . and quietly bullish on this.

ngl, i wouldn’t touch this . and the next cpi/jobs print has to cooperate and the data is noisy.

The curve is already drifting that way, but the strip already prices too many cuts to defend 🧢

i think this misses . plus the next cpi/jobs print has to cooperate and the data is noisy.

ngl, this one’s got legs. tape's cooperating — the vix down 15.0% on the week with 5.5% of room to $17.9, path of least resistance agrees. term premium can back up and overshoot the level. this is a coin flip honestly.

i’m skeptical. the vix -15.0% on the week at $18.95, 5.5% from $17.9. sticky core cpi supports the level. don’t bet the farm.